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生死狙击

书名:男人帮|作者:笑无语|本书类别:古言|更新时间:03:33:00|字数:3896字

一 |     

在全球大战略格局迅猛变化的今天,东亚地区的国家也在积极调整自己的地缘战略布局。

二 |     WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden is considering a trip to Israel in the coming days, but nothing has been finalized, a senior administration official said Sunday.A trip would send the strongest message yet that the U.S. is behind Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. The administration has already pledged military support, sending U.S. aircraft carriers to the region as well as aid. Officials have said they would ask Congress for upward of $2 billion in aid for both Israel and Ukraine.The official could not publicly discuss internal deliberations about the potential presidential travel and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.Egypt's president criticized Israel’s military operation in Gaza in a stern pushback Sunday to the United States as America's top diplomat extended his frenetic travels across the Mideast trying to prevent the war with Hamas from igniting a broader regional conflict.With an Israeli ground offensive looming, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed in some of his strongest language to date that Washington would stand with Israel “today, tomorrow and every day” in a partnership of shared democratic values, but that Israel must take “every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.” He leveled no direct public criticism of Israel or its bombing campaign that has killed civilians in Gaza.From Cairo, where President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi conveyed his criticism, Blinken went to Jordan and planned to return to Israel on Monday, carrying to Israeli leaders the feedback he received in a rush of meetings with leaders throughout the Arab world.His second visit to Israel in recent days will come amid heightening fears that a looming Israeli move into Gaza could spark a wider war with devastating humanitarian consequences, a growing concern for the Biden administration. And the death toll of U.S. citizens rose to 30, with 13 still missing.Egypt’s state-run media said el-Sissi told Blinken that Israel’s Gaza operation has exceeded “the right of self-defense” and turned into “a collective punishment."Blinken told reporters before leaving Egypt that “Israel has the right, indeed it has the obligation to defend itself against these attacks from Hamas and to try to do what it can to make sure that this never happens again." Mindful of the potential human cost in Gaza, Blinken said "the way that Israel does this matters. It needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.’’Earlier Sunday, the envoy met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, talks that built upon earlier sessions with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Blinken said that what he heard in every meeting with Arab leaders “was a determination of shared view that we have to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t spread to other places, a shared view to safeguard innocent lives, a shared view to get assistance to Palestinians in Gaza who need it and we’re working very much on that.”The White House also appointed David Satterfield, a former ambassador to Lebanon and Turkey, to lead U.S. efforts to get humanitarian assistance to “vulnerable people through the Middle East.” Satterfield was expected to arrive in Israel on Monday.From Washington, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser said the U.S. was not “making requests or demands of Israel with respect to its military operations.” Jake Sullivan, making the rounds of the Sunday TV news shows, said the administration was “simply stating our basic principles — the principles upon which this country is based and all democracies, including Israel, are based. It’s what makes us different from the terrorists, that in fact we respect civilian life.”He said the U.S. was not “not interfering in their military planning or trying to give them instructions or requests specific.” Sullivan said the U.S. is conveying the message in public and in private that “all military operations should be conducted consistent with law of war, that civilians should be protected, that civilians should have a real opportunity to get to safety” and have access to food, water, medicine and shelter.Those remarks marked a shift in the U.S. administration's comments in recent days as officials have heard concerns from Arab leaders about the consequences of what a humanitarian catastrophe resulting from an Israeli ground offensive would do not only to Palestinians but also in inflaming public opinions in Arab nations and potentially destabilizing relatively friendly countries.Sullivan also said the U.S. has been unable so far to get American citizens out of Gaza through Egypt’s Rafah crossing with Gaza. “It has been difficult to execute that operation to facilitate their passage out. … It’s a high priority,” acknowledging that “I’m not aware of anyone else being able to get out at this time.” The crossing was closed because of airstrikes early in the war. There are an estimated 500 Americans living in Gaza, but that number is imprecise, officials have said.U.S. officials have said the Arab reaction to Blinken’s message has been generally positive — acknowledging Israel has a right to respond to the Hamas attacks but expressing deep concern about the humanitarian situation in Gaza and unable to stay silent about the Palestinian civilian casualties that result. The Arab leaders have also said the current situation cannot be resolved without an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that gives the Palestinians an independent state.Blinken made clear in Egypt that the U.S. will not waver in supporting Israel, saying, "We will stand with it today, tomorrow and every day and we’re doing that in word and also in deed.’’In his roughly hourlong meeting with Prince Mohammed at the de facto Saudi leader’s private farm outside Riyadh, Blinken “highlighted the United States’ unwavering focus on halting terrorist attacks by Hamas, securing the release of all hostages, and preventing the conflict from spreading,” the State Department said.“The two affirmed their shared commitment to protecting civilians and to advancing stability across the Middle East and beyond,” according to a department statement.The Saudi description of the meeting focused primarily on Palestinian civilians, echoing the sentiments that the other Arab leaders with whom Blinken has met. It said Saudi Arabia would object to the targeting of “civilians in any way or disrupt(ing) infrastructure and vital interests that affect their daily lives.”The prince “stressed the need to work to discuss ways to stop the military operations that claimed the lives of innocent people,“ the Saudi Press Agency said in a report about the meeting.___Associated Press writers Sam Magdy in Cairo, Colleen Long in Washington and Michelle L. Price in New York contributed to this report.。近日,韩国外交部长赵兑烈突然访华,引发了外界广泛的关注。与此同时,解放军也将出发访日,展开为期7天的交流活动。这一系列令人眼前一亮的外交动作似乎预示着亚太格局即将发生骤变!

赵兑烈此行于13日至14日进行,这次访问不仅是赵兑烈秉任外长后首次访华,更是近六年来首位到访中国的韩国外长。鲜为人知的是,在赵兑烈之前的韩国外长曾定下“秉持顺序,应有中国访韩”的规则,但赵兑烈选择打破这个规则,毫不犹豫地飞往北京,与中国进行面对面的交流,可见目前韩国的状况不容乐观。
自2008年起,中日韩三国每年举办一次三方会议,目的是促进三国在经济贸易、文化等多个领域的交流与合作。但随着时间的推移,自2019年12月最后一次召开,中日韩三国之间的峰会便未能再次举行,陷入了停顿状态。
即使是2023年11月召开的中日韩三国外长会议,也没有改善三国关系,当时我国外长王毅在会谈结束后并没有按照常规参加联合发布会,直接离开了。所以,这次赵兑烈的访华之行,极有可能是绝对中日韩三国峰会再次召开的催化剂。
无独有偶,据日媒报道,14日至20日,日本自卫队与中国解放军开展交流活动,届时将有20名中国军官访日,并参观日本的军事基地。

三 | 值得一提的是,在日本自卫队去年7月访华后,解放军原定去年9月进行回访。然而,由于日方去年8月决定向太平洋排放核污染水,中国就取消了计划中的回访。

四 | 如今,这种交流活动的重启被看作是中日两国关系回暖的标志,不只是限于解放军与日本自卫队之间的互动。

回头来看可以发现日韩两国的举动似乎与朝鲜半岛的局势和美国大选有关。
在朝鲜半岛,由于美韩重新执行的高压威慑政策,引发了朝鲜的强硬反击,全新型导弹武器的开发和战备的强化,使得半岛局势呈现螺旋式上升的趋势,这让韩国着急了,想让美国帮帮忙,但此时的美国已经干了不少“糊涂事”,综合实力和国际影响力不断下滑,自身都难保了。

五 |

俄乌冲突爆发后,美欧国家对俄罗斯展开全方位的制裁,但都没有达到预期的效果,反而推动了俄方提升自身经济实力。同时,美国在中东事务中的一边倒,一票否决了巴勒斯坦正式加入联合国的决议,遭到了143个国家的反对。更是让韩国、日本等盟友受尽逼迫,纷纷升级对中国的半导体出口限制,使自身利益饱受损害。
与此同时,对于日韩而言最大的变数即将来临——美国大选,特朗普极有可能再次当选,这就意味着日韩与拜登政府的“盟友外交”彻底作废了,两国面临重开一局的风险,最重要的是重开的这句里面他们必须在遭受一次“经贸保护主义”和“孤立主义”的冲击,这对于日韩来说是一个不小的冲击。
不论是为了预防朝鲜半岛局势的进一步恶化,还是为了提防特朗普的“美国优先”政策,日韩都必须在现在这个紧急关头,加强和中国的沟通,给自己找一条退路出来。
中日韩三国的对话已经开始,预示着一个新的三边峰会可能即将召开,那么东北亚乃至亚太地区的格局将发生重大变化。若美国未能维持与日本和韩国在限制中国方面的合作,其构建亚太地区针对中国的围堵战略恐怕难以实现,同时地区中的紧张局势也可能显著降低。
当然,这一切还需要时间的检验。

六 | 但从目前来看,韩国与中国的对话,以及日本对中国军官的邀请,都表明了一个事实:在全球战略格局中,无论是韩国、日本还是中国,他们都意识到了要摆脱过去的对抗模式,转向构建和平而有序的东亚新格局的必要性。

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