原标题：重磅！今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计8.5%降至8%，延续降温趋势作为本周首个重磅数据，今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计会延续降温的趋势，从8.5%降至8.1%，核心CPI年率预计维持在5.9%；可能会再次显示较低的环比增长，甚至可能录得负增长（市场预期为-0.1%）。能源价格下跌令美国7月通胀率从四十年高位降至通胀开始飙升以来的最低水平，7月环比增速在连续25个月增长后持平，因为能源价格继续缓和，根据EIA的数据，8月份汽油价格大幅下跌。
WARSAW, Poland -- The majority of voters in Poland's general election supported opposition parties that promised to reverse democratic backsliding and repair the nation's relationship with allies, including the European Union and Ukraine, according to projections Monday.After a bitter and emotional campaign, turnout was projected at almost 73%, the highest level in the country's 34 years of democracy and surpassing the 63% who turned out in the historic 1989 vote that toppled communism. In the city of Wroclaw, the lines were so long that voting continued through the night until nearly 3 a.m.A so-called late exit poll by Ipsos suggested that voters had grown tired of the governing nationalist Law and Justice party after eight years of divisive policies that led to frequent street protests, bitter divisions within families and billions of euros (dollars) in funding held up by the EU over rule of law violations.Poland's currency, the zloty, strengthened against the dollar and the euro on news of the opposition gains.The outcome could also affect ties with neighboring Ukraine, which Poland has supported in the war against Russia's aggression. The good relations soured in September over Ukraine grain entering and affecting Poland's market.The Ipsos poll showed that three centrist opposition parties that campaigned on a promise to reverse the illiberal drift of the government had together secured around 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm, a clear majority.“I am really overjoyed now," Magdalena Chmieluk, a 43-year-old accountant, said Monday morning. The opposition "will form a government and we will finally be able to live in a normal country, for real.”The opposition parties faced many disadvantages in contesting the election, said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank.The governing party mobilized its administrative resources to help itself, including by controlling the election administration and by an unfair division of votes in electoral districts, he said.“This success is even more remarkable knowing that the whole playing field was uneven. The electoral system was really tilted toward the government,” Kucharczyk told The Associated Press. “You could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”Still, Poles on Monday were facing weeks of political uncertainty. Law and Justice won more votes than any single party and said it would try to build a new government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.“No matter how you look at it, we won,” Law and Justice campaign manager Joachim Brudzinski said Monday in an interview on RMF FM radio.President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of the election and designate a prime minister to try to build a government. In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.The tradition in the democratic era has been for the president to first tap someone from the party with the most votes, but he is not required to do so.It was not clear how Law and Justice could realistically hold onto power, unless it managed to win over some lawmakers from opposition parties, something it did in the past to maintain the thin parliamentary majority it held for eight years. But that seemed unlikely given the large number that would need to change allegiances.The leader of the agrarian PSL party, a frequent kingmaker in past governments, ruled out cooperating with Law and Justice, known in Poland as PiS, after running with the Third Way coalition.“Those who voted for us want change, want a change of government, want PiS removed from power," Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on RMF FM.The Ipsos poll showed Law and Justice with 36.6% of the votes cast; the opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, with 31%; the centrist Third Way coalition with 13.5%; the Left party with 8.6%; and the far-right Confederation with 6.4%.The electoral commission said it expected to report the final result Tuesday.Tusk on Sunday evening declared that it was the end of Law and Justice rule and that a new era had begun for Poland.But not all rejoiced over the projected outcome. “I am disappointed with the results but I accept the democratic choice," said Elzbieta Szadur-Urbanska, a 58-year-old psychologist who voted for Law and Justice. “I think my party is also democratic.”Others were concerned about possible obstacles to a smooth transfer of power.The public television broadcaster, TVP, was reporting on Monday that Law and Justice had won the election.Cezary Tomczyk, vice chairman of Tusk’s party, said the governing party would do everything it could to try to maintain power. He called on it to accept the election result, saying it was the will of the people to give power to the opposition.“The nation has spoken,” Tomczyk said. Even if the opposition parties take power, they will face difficulties in putting forward their agenda. The president will have the power to veto new legislation, while the constitutional court, whose role is to ensure that new laws don't violate the basic law, is loyal to the current governing party, Kucharczyk said.“Fixing the relations with the EU in particular will require domestic changes, namely restoring the independence of the judiciary, restoring the rule of law, which is a condition for the EU to release the funding for Poland,” Kucharczyk said. “It will be a very, very prolonged and difficult process."___Associated Press journalists Pietro De Cristofaro, Kwiyeon Ha and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。与此同时，机票价格走低，二手车和酒店价格回落，房租上涨也有所放缓。但除此之外，美联储将密切关注食品价格的波动，以寻找潜在通胀正在缓解的迹象，数据显示，一系列商品和服务价格仍远高于一年前的水平，如果这些关键领域物价压力不减，美联储不会轻易放缓加息。但关注随着供应状况的改善传导至消费者，未来几个月食品价格可能会回落。
二 | 美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在放缓或暂停加息之前，希望看到明确且有说服力的证据表明物价压力正在减弱。在上周的讲话中，这一点得到强调，表示“坚定地致力于”抗击通胀。
三 | 不过即便连续放缓，当前说通胀已经过了峰值还为时尚早，特别是考虑冬季能源价格会因为需求再次被推升，作为影响通胀的关键组成部分，很容易将物价再次推向新高。而在通胀公布前，隔夜美股市场因最新通胀预期连续放缓而获得提振，纽约联储的月度消费者预期调查显示，8月消费者认为未来12个月的通胀率料为5.75%，为2021年10月以来最低。消费者还预计未来三年的平均物价增幅为2.8%，为2020年底以来最低。美联储官员曾表示，控制通胀预期是确保通胀率在某个时候回落至2%目标的重要组成部分。旧金山联邦储备银行上周发布的一份研究报告称，美国家庭对未来通胀路径的预期越来越多地影响工资要求。
四 | 美联储本月大概率加息75个基点，如果通胀连续放缓，但是放缓势头温和，将不足以改变美联储继续大幅加息的预期，所以今晚市场的波动视乎通胀最终结果和市场预期的出入，尤其是核心通胀的变化。如果通胀连续放缓，美债收益率预计跟随向下，美股向上寻求动力，继续刷新本月的高位。
五 | 而美元昨晚已经先作调整，如果通胀降温超预期，美元可能进一步下探108，届时金价会获得更大动力延续反弹以1740美元上方为目标。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：
