小姨多鹤
Chinese FM urges greater progress in China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership in meeting with SK president_我的网站

一 | OpenAI前首席技术官穆拉蒂,做出了一款中国模型的“贵替”。

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, at Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, Aug. 20, 2026. Photo: XinhuaFresh progress in China-South Korean ties was on display in another high-level exchange held Thursday between the two sides, following mutual visits by the two heads of state within a span of just over two months previously.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who kicked off his visit to South Korea on Wednesday, held talks with President Lee Jae-myung on Thursday, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
The visit by Wang Yi is his first in five years since he last came to Seoul for bilateral talks with his South Korean counterpart in September 2021, according to South Korean media outlet Yonhap News Agency.
During the meeting, the South Korean president said that South Korea and China should become mutually dependent and mutually beneficial partners with complementary strengths, adding that the two countries need each other in areas such as economy, trade and security, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said the comprehensive restoration of China-South Korea relations and positive progress made since the beginning of this year have demonstrated that a rational, pragmatic and positive policy toward China fully serves South Korea's interests and is in keeping with the trend of the times.
During the visit, Wang also met with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's top presidential national security advisor.
Chinese analysts regard the latest senior-level engagements as "building on the past and paving the way for the future." Coming at a critical juncture amid shifting regional dynamics, it serves as a tangible follow-up to the two heads of state's efforts to restore bilateral ties and reflects the growing maturity of relations, they said.
Opportunity for greater progressDuring the meeting, Lee told Wang Yi that he was glad to see China-South Korea relations improving and developing rapidly, with strong growth momentum in economic and trade cooperation. While highlighting that people-to-people exchanges between the two countries are expected to exceed 10 million this year, Lee said that South Korean public perceptions of China are improving and there are growing expectations for strengthening comprehensive cooperation with China, per Xinhua.
Lee added that he looks forward to visiting China's Shenzhen City in November for the 2026 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, calling it an important opportunity to work with China to advance the South Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership to a new level.
In his turn, the Chinese top diplomat told President Lee that he hopes South Korea will firmly pursue a friendly policy toward China and take the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries next year as an opportunity to make greater progress in the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership.
Wang also noted that China is ready to share development opportunities with all countries, especially its neighbors. Amid growing global economic fragmentation and rising trade protectionism, Wang pointed out that China and South Korea should set an example by concluding the second phase of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations at an early date to promote regional economic integration and universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization.
Since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1992, their bilateral trade volume has increased more than 60 times. China has remained the South Korea's largest trading partner for 21 consecutive years, according to the Xinhua.
According to a Wednesday report by South Korean newspaper The Korea Herald, Seoul has also described Wang Yi's trip as an opportunity to build on the recent improvement in bilateral relations and prepare for further high-level exchanges.
Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' National Institute of International Strategy, told the Global Times that this visit is anchored in key consensus forged during the reciprocal state visits by the two countries' heads of state. Wang Yi's trip can be seen as translating leaders' consensus into concrete action, and deepen exchanges and cooperation at all levels, he noted.
He also viewed the visit as encompassing coordination with Seoul on future preparations for November's APEC meeting, as Lee is expected to attend.
After previous setbacks, China-South Korea relations have recovered across political, economic, diplomatic and security spheres following the leaders' meetings, Yang Xiyu, a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Thursday.
"The highlight of Wang Yi's visit this time could be summarized as steady progress in the maturity of China-South Korea relations, laying firmer ground for expanded cooperation and difference management ahead," Yang added.
Hand in hand
On the international and regional front, Lee said that amid the current international situation, stronger strategic cooperation between South Korea and China serves the fundamental interests of both countries and is important for regional peace and stability, per Xinhua.
Wang Yi told Lee that as an important force for maintaining world peace, China consistently advocates the political settlement of international and regional conflicts through dialogue, adding that China is also a major stabilizing force, providing valuable certainty for the world.
During the Thursday meeting with Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's top presidential national security advisor, Wang Yi also expressed hope that South Korea will pursue genuine strategic autonomy, refrain from bloc confrontation or taking sides, and develop its relations with China, the US and other major countries in a mutually compatible manner, per Xinhua.
Wang Yi stressed that it is necessary to remain highly vigilant against the rhetoric and actions of Japan's right-wing forces that seek to turn back the wheel of history, and that the resurgence of Japanese militarism must never be allowed.
The Chinese top diplomat called on all parties to do more to facilitate the resumption of dialogue and restoration of mutual trust, expressing hopes that the Korean Peninsula will move toward peaceful coexistence between South Korea and the DPRK, ultimately achieving lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, Xinhua reported.
Yang told the Global Times that China is entering a new stage of development, while South Korea in effect stands at a crossroads amid shifts on regional security. For both countries, deepening cooperation is therefore of great significance, and the two sides will need to demonstrate greater political sincerity to expand cooperation and manage differences.
As long as the two sides uphold the vision of a shared future and maintain their independence, China-South Korean relations at this historic juncture can embark on a more solid, fruitful development path that benefits both nations, Yang continued.
He added that stable China-South Korea relations can reduce the risk of confrontation among Northeast Asian countries, build a solid regional cooperation framework, as well as serve as a model in the region.
Looking at the broader international landscape, conflicts persist in the Middle East and elsewhere, while protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, disrupting and even severing global supply chains. Against this backdrop, China-South Korea cooperation is vital not only to maintaining stable regional supply chains but also to supporting stability at the global level, Wang Junsheng said.
Progress in China-South Korea cooperation will generate multiplier effects benefiting both countries and the wider region, while injecting positive momentum into the global economy amid rising protectionism, Yang echoed.
On the first day of his trip on Wednesday, Wang Yi met with Cho Hyun, who said in an X post on Thursday that they walked together along the Dasan Seongguwak-gil trail in Namsan and continued their conversation from yesterday.
"Despite the lingering late-summer heat, I hope walking along the trail — where the historical fortress wall, Namsan's lush forest, and Seoul's cityscape blend seamlessly —offered Minister Wang, an avid hiker, a memorable experience. For me, it was indeed a meaningful time to deepen our friendship too," he wrote.
Embracing China means embracing the future, and going hand in hand with China means going hand in hand with opportunities, Wang Yi said during the meeting with Lee.
。
Thinking Machines发布的首款模型Inkling,混合专家架构主要沿用DeepSeek-V3,后训练冷启动还使用了Kimi K2.5等开放模型生成的数据。然而在多项基准评测中,Inkling落后于Kimi和GLM,调用价格反而更高。

二 |
对于一家融资20亿美元、估值120亿美元,团队中聚集了大量OpenAI前员工的明星公司来说,这个结果多少有些低于预期。
但穆拉蒂可能从一开始就没打算靠Inkling争夺第一。随着美国企业使用中国模型面临越来越多不确定性,一款性能尚可、支持定制、合规风险更低的本土开放模型,已经拥有自己的市场。“贵替”没有那么强,也不愁“市场”。

三 |
01
穆拉蒂的首款模型,就这?
当地时间7月15日,Thinking Machines Lab发布了成立以来的首款模型Inkling。
单看配置,这款模型很符合一家明星AI实验室应有的排场。
Inkling采用混合专家架构,总参数量达到9750亿,每处理一个Token会激活410亿参数;预训练使用了45万亿个Token,数据涵盖文本、图像、音频和视频,最长支持100万个Token的上下文。它可以理解文字、图片和音频,再以文字形式输出结果,还支持通过调节“思考强度”,在性能、速度和成本之间进行取舍。
Inkling同时开放了模型权重,采用相当宽松的Apache 2.0许可证。开发者可以下载权重、自行部署,也可以通过Thinking Machines旗下的Tinker平台对模型进行微调。
公司给它的定位很明确:与其直接和ChatGPT争夺普通用户,Inkling更适合充当企业开发AI应用的底座。
不过,Inkling最引人注意的部分,藏在技术报告后半段。
Thinking Machines在介绍模型架构时直接写道,Inkling的混合专家设计“主要沿用了DeepSeek-V3”。它同样设置了大量专家模块,每个Token只调用其中一小部分,并采用了DeepSeek-V3的无辅助损失负载均衡等设计。

四 |
作者声明:该图片由AI生成
中国模型对Inkling的影响还延伸到了训练阶段。
Thinking Machines表示,为了启动后训练,公司先用开放权重模型生成的合成数据做了一轮监督微调,其中明确提到了月之暗面的Kimi K2.5。
整条技术路线已经足够清楚:一家由OpenAI前首席技术官创办的美国实验室,首款模型沿用了DeepSeek的架构,又借助Kimi生成的数据完成后训练起步。
借鉴开放模型本身没有问题。DeepSeek和Kimi公开权重并允许开发者使用,科学研究和工程开发原本就建立在公开成果的积累之上。

五 | 更尴尬的地方在于,Inkling吸收了中国模型的技术之后,性能依然没有压过这些“老师”。
Thinking Machines对此也没有粉饰。公司在发布文章中直接承认:“Inkling并非目前表现最强的模型,无论开放模型还是闭源模型。”
从Thinking Machines公布的结果看,
.在“人类最后的考试”纯文本评测中,Inkling得分29.7%,Kimi K2.6和GLM 5.2分别达到35.9%和40.1%;
.加入工具后,Inkling升至46%,依然低于Kimi K2.6的54%和GLM 5.2的54.7%。
.在考察真实软件工程能力的SWE-Bench Pro中,Inkling得分54.3%,Kimi K2.6为58.6%,GLM 5.2达到62.1%;
.Terminal Bench 2.1上的差距更加明显,Inkling只有63.8%,Kimi K2.6和GLM 5.2分别达到71.3%和82.7%。
当然,Inkling也有自己的长项。它在网页应用设计、音频理解和安全性评测中表现不错,在部分数学任务上也能超过Kimi和DeepSeek。
只是从综合推理、编程和智能体能力来看,它目前很难被归入开放模型的第一梯队。

六 |
性能没有冲到最前面,价格同样没给出惊喜。
在Tinker平台上,64K版本Inkling每100万Prefill Token收费1.87美元,每100万Sample Token收费4.68美元。

七 | 前者可以粗略理解为输入成本,后者接近生成成本,而且这已经是“限时五折价”。256K版本的价格更高,分别达到3.74美元和9.36美元。
作为对比,Kimi K2.6官方API每100万输入和输出Token分别收费0.95美元和4美元,GLM5.2分别为1.4美元和4.4美元。
Tinker同时提供训练和采样服务,与普通模型API并非完全相同的计费口径。

八 | 但按照上述价格粗略比较,Inkling的预填充价格接近Kimi K2.6的两倍,生成价格也高于Kimi K2.6和GLM5.2,暂时没有体现出价格优势。
于是,Thinking Machines的首款模型呈现出一种有些微妙的局面:架构参考DeepSeek,后训练借力Kimi,综合性能没有超过中国头部开放模型,调用价格反而更贵。
02
穆拉蒂的选择
考虑到穆拉蒂和Thinking Machines的背景,这样的选择便更加耐人寻味。
如果Inkling来自一家普通的AI创业公司,借鉴DeepSeek、借助Kimi训练,或许还没有这么耐人寻味。偏偏它来自Thinking Machines——一家几乎可以称为“OpenAI校友会”的公司。
2025年2月,Thinking Machines正式亮相时,团队只有约30人,其中大约三分之二来自OpenAI,其余成员主要来自Meta和Mistral。
创始团队一度包括OpenAI联合创始人John Schulman、OpenAI前研究副总裁Barret Zoph,以及Lilian Weng、Andrew Tulloch和Luke Metz等研究人员。

九 |
这些人分别参与过OpenAI的强化学习、后训练、预训练、安全和推理研究。路透社当时甚至直接形容,穆拉蒂从前东家挖走了至少20名研究人员。
站在这群OpenAI校友中间的穆拉蒂,当然是最特殊的一个。
她于2018年加入OpenAI,先后参与DALL-E、Codex、ChatGPT和Sora等产品,2022年升任首席技术官,负责协调研究、模型训练、安全和产品落地。
作者声明:该图片由AI生成
2023年11月,OpenAI董事会突然罢免Sam Altman后,穆拉蒂还曾短暂担任临时首席执行官。她的角色更接近技术和产品的总负责人,对OpenAI的模型研发流程和产品化路径有着完整了解。
换句话说,Thinking Machines从成立之初就不缺OpenAI经验。
穆拉蒂和她的团队知道一家顶级闭源实验室如何开发模型,也亲历了ChatGPT从研究成果变成全球产品的全过程。

十 | 当这群人离开OpenAI,从零搭建自己的技术体系时,外界自然会期待他们拿出一条带有OpenAI印记的路线。
结果,Inkling最明确的技术来源却指向了中国。这很容易被理解成一个戏剧性的信号——最了解OpenAI的一群人离开OpenAI后,最终选择了中国模型的技术蓝图。
不过,这个结论还需要拆开来看。
OpenAI近年来的前沿模型全部采用闭源路线,外界拿不到模型权重,也不了解完整的架构、训练数据和后训练方案。穆拉蒂即使熟悉OpenAI内部技术,也不能把前东家的商业机密直接搬进新公司。

十一 | DeepSeek和Kimi则公开了权重或技术报告,架构、训练方法和工具链都可以合法研究和复用。
Inkling本身也是一款开放权重模型。对于一家想要建设开放模型生态的公司来说,从DeepSeek、Kimi等开放模型中吸收成熟方案,属于顺理成章的工程选择。
今天开发一款开放模型,完全避开中国团队已经公开的成果,反而要付出更高的试错成本。
因此,Inkling借鉴中国模型,并不能直接证明穆拉蒂认为DeepSeek的技术全面领先OpenAI。双方公开程度不同,可供借鉴的条件也完全不同。
但这件事依然释放了一个清晰的信号:至少在开放权重领域,中国模型已经成了美国AI团队的重要参考系。
所以,借鉴中国模型并不难解释。

十二 | 真正需要回答的问题是:Thinking Machines吸收了现成的架构和训练经验,为什么最终做出的Inkling性能更弱、价格更高?
穆拉蒂拥有顶尖团队、充足资金和英伟达最新的训练系统。她没有理由看不到Inkling与中国模型之间的性能和价格差距。
既然如此,“贵替”很可能就是一个经过计算的选择。
03
“一般般”,就够了
按照Thinking Machines获得的待遇,Inkling原本不该只是一款“够用”的模型。

十三 |
2025年7月,公司尚未推出任何产品,就完成了20亿美元种子轮融资,估值达到120亿美元,投资方包括安德森·霍洛维茨、英伟达、AMD和简街等。四个月后,Thinking Machines又传出新一轮融资谈判,目标估值高达500亿美元,尽管交易最终没有官宣完成,外界已经将它视为OpenAI和Anthropic的潜在对手。
因此,当Inkling以一款性能不如中国模型、价格还更贵的产品亮相时,难免显得低于预期。
可从商业角度看,穆拉蒂可能从一开始就没打算用它争夺基准评测第一名。
Thinking Machines公司强调的是开放权重、多模态能力和可定制性,希望企业通过Tinker对它进行微调,把Inkling改造成客服、编程助手、行业智能体等专用模型。穆拉蒂押注的市场,对基准评测第一名没有那么执着。企业更在意模型能否私有部署、能否掌握数据、能否按照自己的业务继续训练。
此前,这类需求很大一部分被中国开放模型接住了。
美国的OpenAI和Anthropic长期坚持闭源,Meta的Llama 4表现不及预期后,也逐渐收缩开放路线。与此同时,DeepSeek、Kimi、Qwen和GLM持续开放权重,性能越来越接近美国闭源模型,价格却低得多。
美国企业很快用脚投了票。
根据OpenRouter向CNBC提供的数据,2026年2月以来,中国模型在美国企业经由该平台调用的Token中,每周占比都超过30%,最高一度达到46%。2025年上半年的平均占比还只有4.5%。
Cursor开发Composer 2时测试了多款基础模型,最终选择Kimi K2.5,理由也很直接——它在评测中表现最强。

十四 | 桥水基金则通过Tinker微调阿里的Qwen,得到的定制模型以更低成本超过了部分顶级闭源模型。
中国开放模型由此成了美国企业降低AI成本的一条捷径。只不过,这条路正在承压。
与此同时,美国对中国AI模型的监管氛围正在收紧。

十五 | 相关部门已经围绕数据安全、模型来源和供应链风险发出警告,部分使用中国模型的企业也受到调查。即便尚未形成统一限制,政策上的不确定性已经足以影响企业选择,尤其是涉及政府业务和敏感数据的公司。
这正是Inkling的市场空间。
它是一款美国公司开发、采用Apache 2.0许可证、支持私有部署和定制的开放权重模型。

十六 | 美国企业选择它,不必担心使用中国模型引发的政治争议,也更容易通过政府客户和大型公司的合规审查。
Inkling真正的价值,来自这种合规确定性。
穆拉蒂显然看到了这个正在形成的空缺。

十七 |
作者声明:该图片由AI生成
Thinking Machines吸收DeepSeek和Kimi的公开成果,再把它们转化成一款由美国公司提供的模型。Inkling不需要在所有基准评测中击败中国模型,只需要成为那些不敢继续使用中国模型的美国企业可以接受的选择。
这也解释了它为什么敢于更贵。

十八 | 政策替Inkling缩小了竞争范围,性能和价格上的差距便没那么致命。

十九 | 对于一些美国企业来说,一款稍弱、稍贵但风险较低的模型,已经足够。
从这个角度看,Inkling更能证明穆拉蒂懂得做生意。
不过,这套生意成立的代价,可能由美国企业承担。
美国之外的公司仍然可以自由选择GLM、Kimi和DeepSeek,在更强、更便宜的基础模型上开发产品;美国企业却可能被迫采用性能稍弱、价格更高的本土替代品。

| 基础模型的能力差距会继续传递到微调后的产品中,最终形成结构性的竞争劣势。

|
华盛顿原本希望用限制保护美国AI公司,结果可能先替Inkling这样的“贵替”创造了市场。对穆拉蒂来说,“一般般”已经够了。

| 对美国AI产业来说,这份“够用”则意味着成本的升高和竞争力的下降。

|
Current article:http://www.shangfochengcongshuaizhuang.buzz/zgo/d2r.html
Published on:14:14:19